Risk analysis
Using the information gathered in the site evaluation and from any other sources, describe each risk associated with the flight and estimate its severity and probability. Bear in mind that some risks will always be present and some will be site-specific.
The flowchart below shows the steps to be followed. Note that severity and probability are estimated twice. The first time it is assumed that only standard safety measures will be in place. After that, additional safety measures are designed specifically for this flight and the severity and probability are re-estimated.
Severity and probability are both evaluated on a scale of 1 to 5 where the meanings of these values are as follows.
| Value | Severity | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Injury, Property damage | Extremely Unlikely |
| 2 | Minor Injury | Remotely Possible |
| 3 | Reportable Injury | Will Possibly Occur |
| 4 | Major Injury / Single Fatality | Will Probably Occur |
| 5 | Multiple Fatalities | Almost Certain |
Risk is calculated as severity x probability. This is done automatically by the risk analysis form.
A risk value below 6 is considered low and may be accepted. It should still be reviewed to see whether the risk can be further mitigated.
A risk value between 6 and 12 is considered medium and the flight should only proceed with special measures such as specialist personnel and/or a safety team. Further measures to mitigate the risk must be explored.
A risk value above 12 is considered high and the flight should not proceed unless the risk can be sufficiently mitigated.